Area's congressional races attract national spotlight

James R. Carroll
The Courier-Journal

As voting approaches, the experts are handicapping the races.

A bit more than three weeks until Election Day, the political handicappers are surveying the campaign landscape, and three Kentucky House races -- in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th Districts -- and one Southern Indiana House contest are considered among the hottest.

And yet, it is not clear whether the Kentuckiana contests will provide as much help to the Democrats they once hoped for in their quest to take control of the House, according to analysts.

The Democrats need to pick up 15 seats nationwide to take power in the House, and that now appears not only doable but likely, according to several nonpartisan assessments out in recent days.

"There is a Democratic gale a blowin'," writes Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, in his latest Crystal Ball newsletter.

"If current trends continue it looks like the Democrats will control the House by about 19 seats," said Thom Riehle, lead developer of the Majority Watch poll, a project of a bipartisan polling firm and a nonpartisan polling research group. The latest poll surveyed 32,000 likely voters between Oct. 8 and 10.
9th District rematch

In Indiana's 9th District, voters are used to seeing Rep. Mike Sodrel, the Republican, and former Rep. Baron Hill, the Democrat, on the ballot. This is the pair's third round. Hill beat Sodrel in 2002, and Sodrel returned the favor in 2004.

The battle is rated a tossup by Sabato and Amy Walter, House analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

"The hardest position to be in right now is to be a Republican who does not have an identity separate from the national party," and that applies to Sodrel, Walter said. But with a couple of other Indiana House Republicans in tough races, Republicans believe Sodrel has the best shot at surviving, she said.

Sabato said Gov. Mitch Daniels' low job ratings may be a drag on Republican candidates in Indiana.

Read more of this article on the congressional races and other political news at the Courier-Journal.com